印网友:印度在未来十年里能变得比中国更强大吗

  • 时间:
  • 浏览:12
  • 来源:荣华彩票

Can India be more powerful than China in this decade? If yes, why?

印度能在未来十年里变得比中国更为强大吗?如果可以,是因为什么?

以下是Quora读者的评论:

Usman PK, MA Political Science & Law, University of the Punjab (2015)

The Short Answer of this question is that India can never become powerful like china even in their dreams because India is like a balloon who is filled by the Air and when someone put an needle the whole balloon will be burst and it’s pieces will be scattered in the air. It is like an artificial economy which give artificial results as India foreign debt rises upto 529.7 billion US dollars. On other side India foreign reserves are touches 405.14 billion US dollars and economic experts claim that in September 2018 India foreign reserves fell 399.28 billion US dollars. Let’s see some historical economic comparison between India and China:

对于这个问题的简单回答是,就算是做白日梦,印度也永远不可能像中国那样强大,因为印度就像一个充满空气的气球,只要有人扎根针,整个气球就会爆炸,它的碎片会在空中四处散落。它就像一个人为杜撰出来的经济体,印度的外债上升到5297亿美元,导致了人为的结果。另一方面,印度外汇储备为4051.4亿美元,经济专家称,2018年9月印度外汇储备下降了3992.8亿美元。让我们看看印度和中国之间的历史经济比较:

 

1: Economy Comparison:

The India and China are two Giant Countries not only in Area, population but also in economy as both GDP growth rate is rapidly increasing but there is little difference between the economy of these countries which are as follows:

1:经济比较:

印度和中国是两个巨大的国家,不仅在面积、人口上,更体现在经济上,因为两国的国内生产总值都在迅速增长,但这两个国家在经济方面的差别不大,具体如下:

Foreign Reserves:

外汇储备:

India:

The first and major difference between India and China economies are their foreign reserves. As India Foreign reserves are touches 405 billion US dollars but they fluctuate with time to time but now recently India foreign reserves fell to 399 billion US dollars.

印度:

印度和中国经济的第一个也是最大的区别在于外汇储备。印度的外汇储备已达到4050亿美元,但随着时间的推移,外汇储备不断波动,最近印度的外汇储备已降至3990亿美元。

China:

The China Foreign Reserves are touching high to the sky as it reaches 3.51 trillion US dollars and in future it is going to beat the US foreign reserves. India is no where in economic competition with China as India economic growth is blessed by foreign investment and when foreign investor leave India it’s economy fell like a leaf as far as China economy is concerned It is built on purely National productions. China sell it’s own products rather than selling foreign products.

中国:

中国的外汇储备已高达3.51万亿美元,未来将超过美国。印度在与中国的经济竞争中处于不利地位,因为印度的经济增长得益于外国投资,当外国投资者撤离印度时,印度的经济就会像落叶飘零,而中国经济是建立在全国性的生产基础上的。中国出售自己的产品,而不是外国产品。

Foreign Debt:

外债:

India:

The India foreign debt increases every year as it surpasses their foreign reserves. The total foreign debt on India is around 529 billion US Dollars and if India did not take effective steps to counter foreign debt then it will be like the broken ship which can be sink in anytime.

印度:

印度的外债每年都在增加,已经超过了外汇储备。印度的外债总额约为5290亿美元,如果印度不采取应对外债的有效措施,那它就像一艘随时可能沉没的破船。

China:

The China foreign debt is around 1.71 trillion US dollars which is manageable by Govt of China. The trade war between US and China will also not affect the china economic stability as US is already under heavy debt of China and it will not be able to raise voice against it.

中国:

中国外债约1.71万亿美元,是中国自己可以控制的。中美贸易战也不会影响中国的经济稳定,因为美国欠了中国一大笔沉重的债务,不太可能提出太大的反对声。

GDP:

国内生产总值:

India:

There is no doubt that India GDP is growing with the passage of time but still it’s economy is pump and fueled by foreign countries. As India current 2018 GDP growth rate is around 7.4% and it is expected to rise in upcoming years if it manage the security and peace and if they go to war with any country either limited or full then their economy will be on ground like zero.

印度:

毫无疑问,随着时间的推移,印度的国内生产总值在增长,但它的经济仍然是由外国推动的。印度2018年的国内生产总值增长率约为7.4%,如果印度妥善处理好安全与和平事务,如果印度与任何一个国家开战(无论是局部战争还是荣华彩票app全面战争),那么印度的经济将原地踏步。

China:

The China is like Tortoise who walk slowly but reach their destination as china start it’s progress with very limited work force but now they turned themselves into world economic super power as China GDP growth rate is around 6.7% and it is expected to touch 7 to 8 % in upcoming years.

Well I pray for both Countries to continue their progress and development by peace and harmony as they should not indulge in war or skirmishes.

中国:

中国就像乌龟,虽然脚步缓慢,但却能坚持实现目标,中国在发展之初劳动力非常有限,但现在中国国内生产总值(GDP)增长率已达到6.7%左右,预计未来几年将达到7%至8%,中国已经成为世界经济的超级大国

我祈祷两国继续和平、融洽地进步、发展,不要陷入战争和冲突的泥沼。

 

Ketan Gandhi, Research Analyst at Orion Market Research

In a decade, a big NO

未来十年内,绝无可能。

Both India and China are developing economies and also among the major fastest economies in the World. India is growing faster than China but how much percent? Let's say 4% higher but still, the gap between the GDP is so high that we can not cover it. India's nominal GDP was $2.65 trillion whereas China’s was $12.23 trillion in 2018. 4.6 times more.

印度和中国都是发展中经济体,也是世界上发展最快的主要经济体之一。印度的增长速度比中国快,但快多少?就算高出4%,但两国GDP之间的差距仍然很大,我们无法弥合。2018年,印度名义GDP为2.65万亿美元,而中国为12.23万亿美元。差距达到4.6倍以上。

As of now, Modi’s target is to reach $5 trillion GDP by 2024, which is 5 years from 2019 and if we reach there by 2024, it will take 5 more years to reach $10–$11 trillion GDP. In that due course of time, there is a possibility that China will overtake the US and become the largest economy in the World. Moreover, after 2022–2023, we will become the largest population in the World, pressure on our natural resources will increase more, which I doubt will be able to provide us that much growth which we are getting in the present time.

到目前为止,莫迪的目标是2024年GDP达到5万亿美元,也就是说从2019年起算5年,如果2024年达到这一目标,还需要5年时间GDP才能达到10-11万亿美元。届时,中国有可能已经超越美国,成为世界上最大的经济体。此外,在2022-2023年之后,我们将成为世界上人口最多的国家,我们对自然资源的压力将更大,我怀疑自然资源无力支撑我们目前的增长。

There are several other factors which provide an edge to China over India like technological advancement in AI, cloud computing, communist government, self-reliance for internet (Youtube, Google, Facebook, Quora, Yahoo, Instagram,

Wikipedia, Pininterest are banned in the country and have developed their own websites), alternative of android, which can be discussed in detail. The country has huge oil reserves due to which they can devalue its currency which motivates exports. Considering all these, we can say that we are not going to surpass China at least in a decade.

还有其他几个因素使中国在对印度的问题上处于优势地位,如人工智能的技术进步、云计算、政府、互联网的独立自主、安卓的替代品,可以进一步详细讨论。中国拥有庞大的石油储备,因此他们可以令其货币贬值,从而刺激出口。考虑到这一切因素,我们可以说至少在未来十年内,我们无法超过中国。

 

Rohit Kumar, I am Still a Student (2015-present)

Yes it is and a recent research report from Harvard University disclosed that India is going to be the most powerful country in Asia by 2024.

It looks to be from the below points.

是的,哈佛大学最近的一份研究报告披露,到2024年,印度将成为亚洲最强大的国家。

从以下几点来看。

India is one of the fastest growing economy in the world

India is likely to pass the china's economy very soon in the coming years

India's strong foreign policy

Improved relations with strong countries of world like USA, Russia, Israel, Japan etc gives a plus point to India against China

Presence of India in South East Asia also makes him ahead of China

印度是世界上增长最快的经济体之一。

印度经济可能在未来几年内就超过中国。

印度强有力的外交政策。

印度与美国、俄罗斯、以色列、日本等世界强国的关系改善,比中国更有优势。

印度在东南亚的存在也使印度领先于中国

 

Gwydion Madawc Williams, Read a lot about this

No, they are still a long way behind economically.

不,他们在经济上还大幅落后。

Last year it was claimed that India grew faster. Even if this was true and if it lasted, it would take some time to catch up.

去年有人称印度的经济增长速度更快。即便说法属实,即便增长速度能保持,也需要一段时间才能赶上中国。

 

Ryne P.M ME, Associate Professor at Vimal Jyothi Engineering College, Kannur

No,not in this decade but by 2050 definitely India will beat China .There are several reasons for that. Before British rule in India, we and China were the wealthiest .Because that time wealth was measured based on the quantity of gold and diamonds present. USA was not discovered by that time. Britain looted every thing and dumped us in to poverty.India became a free nation in 1947 and later in 1962 there was a war between India and China .India was defeated because of Nehruvian style of defence. China attacked because they want to keep India on the back foot. But again in 1967 when we met in Sikkim,we gave them a bloody nose.

不能,未来十年不太可能,但等到2050年,印度肯定会超过中国。原因有几个。在英国统治印度之前,我们和中国都是最富有的国家,因为当时国家的财富是根据黄金和钻石的保有数量来衡量的。那时美国还没有被发现呢。英国掠夺了一切,把我们踹入了贫困的深渊。印度在1947年成为独立自 由的国家,1962年爆发中印战争,尼赫鲁式的防御方式使印度惨败。中国打印度是因为他们想让印度一直落后。但1967年我们在锡金相遇时,我们给了他们一记沉重的打击。

In India ,all the above sequence started happening now.Infrastructure development like superhighways ,sky scrapers ,defence manufacturing etc.Since India is a democracy it will take some time. China became manufacturing hub because of the cheap labors but now its not so .Labor cost and hence manufacturing cost in China is very high and hence all the companies started shifting to the nations like India,Indonesia,Malaysia and Bangladesh .China is an exported oriented nation .

在印度,上述所有的事情现在都开始发生了。像高速公路、摩天大楼、国防制造业等基础设施都开始建设了。因为印度是一个国家,我们需要一些时间。中国成为全球制造业中心是因为其廉价的劳动力,但现在情况已经不同了,中国的劳动力成本和制造成本非常高,因此所有的公司都开始转向印度、印度尼西亚、马来西亚和孟加拉国等国。

Even though China is three times bigger than India, large portion of their land is useless. Chines population density is concentrated in the south east side only and this is their main land . Indian population is uniformly distributed. China is depended on several African nations for their agricultural needs. China is highly vulnerable in Indian ocean.

尽管中国的国土面积比印度大三倍,但大部分土地都毫无用处。中国的人口集中在东南方,而印度人口分布均匀。中国的农业需求依赖于几个非洲国家。中国在印度洋地区非常脆弱。

If a war breaks out between India and China and if we choke’ Strait of Malacca’ ,Chines economy will collapse .It will be very difficult for PLA Navy to open this blockade. That’s why they started China Pakistan Economic Corridor. China may be world’s number one till 2040. But China cannot sustain the same growth thereafter because of their aging population.

如果印度和中国之间爆发战争,如果我们切断马六甲海峡,中国经济就会崩溃,解放军海军很难打开这一封锁。这就是他们启动中巴经济走廊的原因。到2040年,中国可能会成为世界第一。但由于人口老龄化,此后中国无法保持同样的增长。

Because of “Single Child Policy” in every family only one child where as in India its two. Now since the working population is aged ,by 2040 non working population in China will be twice than that in India. That means in India twice the number will be employed than in China .Indian population will be increasing till 2050 where as in China by 2030 population will shrink and this will be tipping point when India will get that leverage to to beat China.

因为中国推行“独生子女政策”,每个家庭只有1个孩子,而印度则是2个孩子,现在由于劳动人口老龄化,到2040年,中国的非劳动人口将是印度的2倍。这意味着印度的就业人数将是中国的两倍,印度人口到2050年前将会持续增加,而中国人口到2030年将会开始减少,这将是一个转折点,届时印度将获得超过中国的影响力。

译文来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/50029.html 译者:Joyceliu

 

Shambo Banerjee

Power is a double edged sword. It is tricky as it has the tangible capacity to fortify as well as the intangible capacity to corrupt. So, it runs in cycles of highs and lows. India was powerful once ages ago, and has not been for quite some centuries now. Russia was powerful throughout most of the 20th century, but ended up broken during the last few years. US has held onto power for quite sometime now, but then is perceived to be insecure in its all-powerful glory (ahem… Middle East mess). So, I am not sure if it will bode well for India to be as powerful as China, or at least in the exact same grain as China is now.

强大是一把双刃剑。这是一个棘手的问题,因为它既有有形的强化能力,也有无形的腐败能力。所以,它总是有高有低。印度在很久以前曾经强大过,现在已经过去好几个世纪了。俄罗斯在20世纪的大部分时间里都很强大,但在过去的几年里却分崩离析。美国已经强盛相当长一段时间了,但人们认为,美国在其强大的荣耀(嗯哼……中东混乱)中缺乏安全感。所以,我不确定印度是否会像中国一样强大,或者至少和现在的中国一样强大。

In that context, let’s address the essence of the question. Can India be as militarily or economically or technologically as powerful as China? Yes and No.

在这种情况下,让我们谈谈这个问题的荣华彩票登录实质吧。印度在军事上、经济上或科技上能和中国一样强大吗?说能也能,说不能也不能。

To understand power in today’s nation states’ context, we need to jump right into the political framework as it is the foremost aspect to be considered. In a democracy, the individual’s growth is supported (and protected) by the state, while in a communist framework the state’s growth is supported by the individual..

要理解当今民族国家背景下的实力,我们需要直接关注政治框架,因为这是最需要考虑的方面。在国家,个人的成长得到了国家的支持(和保护),而在他们的框架下,国家的成长得到了个体的支持。

Both approaches have their merits and pitfalls and obviously neither is black and white. In both cases, there are practical aberrations, for better or for worse.

这两种制度都各有其优缺点,显然也不是非黑即白的。两种制度都有偏差,不管是好是坏。

Adding to this, India is much more regionally diverse than China. So, it is more time and effort consuming to accommodate and give space to all the political and social aspirations, than it is in China. This is an important aspect because in India financial achievements are individual while social, ethnic, religious and provincial achievements are collective. The latter is thus more engaging and participatory.

除此之外,印度在地区上的多样性远高于中国。因此,与中国相比,印度要花更多的时间和精力来适应和满足所有的政治和社会愿望。这是一个重要方面,因为在印度,财政成就是个人的,而社会、民族、宗教和地方成就是集体的。因此,后者更具参与性。

Economically, the entire world “snuffs” credit to drive growth. China again has been using a lot of it but commendably managing its huge credit driven growth over the years.

在经济上,全世界都“扼杀”信贷以推动经济增长。多年来,中国又使用了大量信贷,但值得称道的是,它成功地实现了由信贷推动的巨大增长。

China is an inherently wealthy nation in terms of natural resources and the government is passionate about their global prominence. They have done a much better job at translating their credit into infrastructural marvels. Infrastructure is a massive growth multiplier. India is woefully lacking in this. Indian credit story is rife with political opportunism and corruption. Some of its prime beneficiaries are businessmen and bankers with no scruples or legal fear. India has shown abysmal lack of financial maturity in this regard. So, economy is one of the major focus areas India needs to catch up with China and this will take the biggest effort. Economic policies have also been implemented after much dilly-dally over the years.

就自然资源而言,中国是一个天生富裕的国家,政府对中国在全球的突出地位充满热情。他们在将信贷转化为基础设施的奇迹方面的表现更好。基础设施是巨大的增长倍增器。印度在这方面严重不足。印度的信贷充斥着政治机会主义和腐败。它的一些主要受益人是商人和银行家,他们没有丝毫顾忌,也不忌惮法律。在这方面,印度表现出严重的金融不成熟。因此,经济是印度需要追赶中国的重点领域之一,这需要我们付出最大的努力。在经过这么多年的拖沓延误后,经济政策也得到了实施。

猜你喜欢

民航局:6月8日起 平均每日入境人数约4700人

为继续做好新形势下统筹推进疫情防控和经济社会发展工作,有序恢复部分国际客运航班,进一步满足我国留学生和海外华侨华人回国的迫切需求,本月4日,《民航局关于调整国际客运航班的通知》

2020-06-06

印度人想改国名,呼吁把国名改成“巴拉特”或“印度斯坦”,印网友热议

SCcalledupontorenameIndiaasBharat/Hindustan;seeksCentre'sresponse请愿者呼吁最高法院将印度重新命名为巴拉特或印度

2020-06-06

印度国防秘书新冠检测呈阳性,印网友感到意外

India'sdefencesecretarytestspositiveforCovid-19印度国防秘书新冠检测呈阳性NEWDELHI:Inadevelopmentthath

2020-06-06

印媒:喀拉拉邦一头怀孕的野象遭到猎杀,引起全国公愤

KillingofpregnantelephantinKeralatriggersnationwideoutrage喀拉拉邦一头怀孕的野象遭到猎杀,引起全国公愤PALAKKAD

2020-06-06

新郎租豪华婚车遇故障要赔26万:伴郎去还车 也得赔

人生四大喜:久旱逢甘雨,他乡遇故知,洞房花烛夜,金榜题名时。结婚绝对算得上是人一生中最重要的时刻之一。本案的当事人张某,为了能有一场隆重、气派的婚礼,像很多结婚的新人一样,租赁

2020-06-06