Can India be more powerful than China in this decade? If yes, why?
Usman PK, MA Political Science & Law, University of the Punjab (2015)
The Short Answer of this question is that India can never become powerful like china even in their dreams because India is like a balloon who is filled by the Air and when someone put an needle the whole balloon will be burst and it’s pieces will be scattered in the air. It is like an artificial economy which give artificial results as India foreign debt rises upto 529.7 billion US dollars. On other side India foreign reserves are touches 405.14 billion US dollars and economic experts claim that in September 2018 India foreign reserves fell 399.28 billion US dollars. Let’s see some historical economic comparison between India and China:
1: Economy Comparison:
The India and China are two Giant Countries not only in Area, population but also in economy as both GDP growth rate is rapidly increasing but there is little difference between the economy of these countries which are as follows:
The first and major difference between India and China economies are their foreign reserves. As India Foreign reserves are touches 405 billion US dollars but they fluctuate with time to time but now recently India foreign reserves fell to 399 billion US dollars.
The China Foreign Reserves are touching high to the sky as it reaches 3.51 trillion US dollars and in future it is going to beat the US foreign reserves. India is no where in economic competition with China as India economic growth is blessed by foreign investment and when foreign investor leave India it’s economy fell like a leaf as far as China economy is concerned It is built on purely National productions. China sell it’s own products rather than selling foreign products.
The India foreign debt increases every year as it surpasses their foreign reserves. The total foreign debt on India is around 529 billion US Dollars and if India did not take effective steps to counter foreign debt then it will be like the broken ship which can be sink in anytime.
The China foreign debt is around 1.71 trillion US dollars which is manageable by Govt of China. The trade war between US and China will also not affect the china economic stability as US is already under heavy debt of China and it will not be able to raise voice against it.
There is no doubt that India GDP is growing with the passage of time but still it’s economy is pump and fueled by foreign countries. As India current 2018 GDP growth rate is around 7.4% and it is expected to rise in upcoming years if it manage the security and peace and if they go to war with any country either limited or full then their economy will be on ground like zero.
The China is like Tortoise who walk slowly but reach their destination as china start it’s progress with very limited work force but now they turned themselves into world economic super power as China GDP growth rate is around 6.7% and it is expected to touch 7 to 8 % in upcoming years.
Well I pray for both Countries to continue their progress and development by peace and harmony as they should not indulge in war or skirmishes.
Ketan Gandhi, Research Analyst at Orion Market Research
In a decade, a big NO
Both India and China are developing economies and also among the major fastest economies in the World. India is growing faster than China but how much percent? Let's say 4% higher but still, the gap between the GDP is so high that we can not cover it. India's nominal GDP was $2.65 trillion whereas China’s was $12.23 trillion in 2018. 4.6 times more.
As of now, Modi’s target is to reach $5 trillion GDP by 2024, which is 5 years from 2019 and if we reach there by 2024, it will take 5 more years to reach $10–$11 trillion GDP. In that due course of time, there is a possibility that China will overtake the US and become the largest economy in the World. Moreover, after 2022–2023, we will become the largest population in the World, pressure on our natural resources will increase more, which I doubt will be able to provide us that much growth which we are getting in the present time.
There are several other factors which provide an edge to China over India like technological advancement in AI, cloud computing, communist government, self-reliance for internet (Youtube, Google, Facebook, Quora, Yahoo, Instagram,
Wikipedia, Pininterest are banned in the country and have developed their own websites), alternative of android, which can be discussed in detail. The country has huge oil reserves due to which they can devalue its currency which motivates exports. Considering all these, we can say that we are not going to surpass China at least in a decade.
Rohit Kumar, I am Still a Student (2015-present)
Yes it is and a recent research report from Harvard University disclosed that India is going to be the most powerful country in Asia by 2024.
It looks to be from the below points.
India is one of the fastest growing economy in the world
India is likely to pass the china's economy very soon in the coming years
India's strong foreign policy
Improved relations with strong countries of world like USA, Russia, Israel, Japan etc gives a plus point to India against China
Presence of India in South East Asia also makes him ahead of China
Gwydion Madawc Williams, Read a lot about this
No, they are still a long way behind economically.
Last year it was claimed that India grew faster. Even if this was true and if it lasted, it would take some time to catch up.
Ryne P.M ME, Associate Professor at Vimal Jyothi Engineering College, Kannur
No,not in this decade but by 2050 definitely India will beat China .There are several reasons for that. Before British rule in India, we and China were the wealthiest .Because that time wealth was measured based on the quantity of gold and diamonds present. USA was not discovered by that time. Britain looted every thing and dumped us in to poverty.India became a free nation in 1947 and later in 1962 there was a war between India and China .India was defeated because of Nehruvian style of defence. China attacked because they want to keep India on the back foot. But again in 1967 when we met in Sikkim,we gave them a bloody nose.
In India ,all the above sequence started happening now.Infrastructure development like superhighways ,sky scrapers ,defence manufacturing etc.Since India is a democracy it will take some time. China became manufacturing hub because of the cheap labors but now its not so .Labor cost and hence manufacturing cost in China is very high and hence all the companies started shifting to the nations like India,Indonesia,Malaysia and Bangladesh .China is an exported oriented nation .
Even though China is three times bigger than India, large portion of their land is useless. Chines population density is concentrated in the south east side only and this is their main land . Indian population is uniformly distributed. China is depended on several African nations for their agricultural needs. China is highly vulnerable in Indian ocean.
If a war breaks out between India and China and if we choke’ Strait of Malacca’ ,Chines economy will collapse .It will be very difficult for PLA Navy to open this blockade. That’s why they started China Pakistan Economic Corridor. China may be world’s number one till 2040. But China cannot sustain the same growth thereafter because of their aging population.
Because of “Single Child Policy” in every family only one child where as in India its two. Now since the working population is aged ,by 2040 non working population in China will be twice than that in India. That means in India twice the number will be employed than in China .Indian population will be increasing till 2050 where as in China by 2030 population will shrink and this will be tipping point when India will get that leverage to to beat China.
译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/50029.html 译者：Joyceliu
Power is a double edged sword. It is tricky as it has the tangible capacity to fortify as well as the intangible capacity to corrupt. So, it runs in cycles of highs and lows. India was powerful once ages ago, and has not been for quite some centuries now. Russia was powerful throughout most of the 20th century, but ended up broken during the last few years. US has held onto power for quite sometime now, but then is perceived to be insecure in its all-powerful glory (ahem… Middle East mess). So, I am not sure if it will bode well for India to be as powerful as China, or at least in the exact same grain as China is now.
In that context, let’s address the essence of the question. Can India be as militarily or economically or technologically as powerful as China? Yes and No.
To understand power in today’s nation states’ context, we need to jump right into the political framework as it is the foremost aspect to be considered. In a democracy, the individual’s growth is supported (and protected) by the state, while in a communist framework the state’s growth is supported by the individual..
Both approaches have their merits and pitfalls and obviously neither is black and white. In both cases, there are practical aberrations, for better or for worse.
Adding to this, India is much more regionally diverse than China. So, it is more time and effort consuming to accommodate and give space to all the political and social aspirations, than it is in China. This is an important aspect because in India financial achievements are individual while social, ethnic, religious and provincial achievements are collective. The latter is thus more engaging and participatory.
Economically, the entire world “snuffs” credit to drive growth. China again has been using a lot of it but commendably managing its huge credit driven growth over the years.
China is an inherently wealthy nation in terms of natural resources and the government is passionate about their global prominence. They have done a much better job at translating their credit into infrastructural marvels. Infrastructure is a massive growth multiplier. India is woefully lacking in this. Indian credit story is rife with political opportunism and corruption. Some of its prime beneficiaries are businessmen and bankers with no scruples or legal fear. India has shown abysmal lack of financial maturity in this regard. So, economy is one of the major focus areas India needs to catch up with China and this will take the biggest effort. Economic policies have also been implemented after much dilly-dally over the years.