In a coronavirus-struck world, India and China alone may escape a recession th荣华彩票appis year
The Indian economy, which was already in the midst of a major slowdown, is now facing a severe deceleration due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
This has prompted unprecedented firefighting measures from the country’s central bank.
On March 27, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the repo rate, at which it lends to commercial banks, to 4.4%. It also reduced the reserve repo rate, at which banks lend to the RBI, by 90 basis points to 4%, in a bid to create liquidity for businesses.
Yet, for those expecting these measures to spur a quick recovery, former RBI director Vipin Malik has a word of caution. “They (the steps taken by the government and the central bank) would go some way in reviving the economy and bringing back (investor and consumer) confidence, but it may not be enough and the economy may need other booster shots,” said Malik.
In an interview with Quartz, Malik discussed India’s GDP and inflation forecasts, problems faced by the banking sector and what more needs to be done to kickstart an economic revival in the country.
RBI governor Shaktikanta Das has stated that India’s GDP would bounce back to 7.4% in financial year 2022. Is it realistic?
While GDP growth will be in the range of 1.5-3% in financial year 2021, there is a clear possibility of a strong rebound next financial year. I would place it at 6.5%.
Are there signs of a 2008-like recession globally and a severe slowdown in India?
Recession is a word, which is loosely, and wrongly, used as a synonym for slowdown. Technically, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. While most countries are likely to go into recession, India and China are expected to record positive growth (this financial year).
Given the gravity of the crisis and its crippling impact, a cut in India’s GDP projection by global agencies does not cause much surprise. Micro, small & medium enterprises (MSMEs) and services segments are likely to be among the most affected amid a reduction in consumer spending. Also, borrowers of non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) would be adversely impacted. They typically have limited cash buffers, and any fall in earnings is likely to affect their ability to repay loans.
EXACTLY WHY the US needs to move production & services back to the US.
Consumption is low and may stay low for a while. How may China stay positive?
A huge % of the world’s consumers are unemployed with little or no buying power, yet the “world’s factory” escapes with no financial fallout?
The world economy is so global that no country will escape a recession. Even though China and India can produce things they need the rest of the world to buy them.
Daughter of American Revolution
China props up its Economy more Than we do
Sounds like China propaganda
It's a world economy. If the US has a recession, so will China and India.
US stock market is going up too recently doesn't matter how many people lost their jobs and how many businesses closed thier doors.
Just stop buying Chinese products. Stop saying your going to stop. Just do it.
Seriously, unless you are a rich person in either of these countries, how much worse could this make things??
No, they won't. They need buyers and consumption and that is where we have the biggest impact.
Don't bet on it. You can't trust China, that's for sure.
Wrong. If everyone is in a recession then chinas exports will fade. Can’t sell if people have no money to buy
India’s dependence on external economic activity is much lower than other countries. Hence, global slowdown may have low impact on India, not sure about China though.
If Biden or DemocRats win, we will all be speaking Mandarin.
Please, this is a joke! Who is buying Chinese goods? They are printing money in massive amounts right now and their debt load before all this happened was massive. Their currency is not the world's reserve currency and they depend on dollars to survive.
In fact India may gain by the end of the year as most countries have lost faith in China and may invest in India.