美媒:新冠疫情肆虐全球,今年或只有印度和中国能避免经济衰退

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 In a coronavirus-struck world, India and China alone may escape a recession th荣华彩票appis year

新冠疫情肆虐全球,今年或只有印度和中国能避免经济衰退

 

The Indian economy, which was already in the midst of a major slowdown, is now facing a severe deceleration due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

由于新冠疫情爆发,本就已经放缓的印度经济目前正面临大减速。

This has prompted unprecedented firefighting measures from the country’s central bank.

这促使印度央行采取前所未有的预防措施。

On March 27, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the repo rate, at which it lends to commercial banks, to 4.4%. It also reduced the reserve repo rate, at which banks lend to the RBI, by 90 basis points to 4%, in a bid to create liquidity for businesses.

3月27日,印度储备银行(RBI)将其贷款给商业银行的回购利率下调至4.4%。为了给企业创造流动资金,央行还将银行贷款给印度央行的准备金回购利率下调了90个基点,至4%。

Yet, for those expecting these measures to spur a quick recovery, former RBI director Vipin Malik has a word of caution. “They (the steps taken by the government and the central bank) would go some way in reviving the economy and bringing back (investor and consumer) confidence, but it may not be enough and the economy may need other booster shots,” said Malik.

然而,对于那些期待这些措施能刺激经济快速复苏的人,印度央行前行长维平•马利克提出了警告,他说:“他们(政府和央行所采取的措施)将在一定程度上重振经济,恢复投资者和消费者的信心,但这些可能还不够,经济复苏可能还需要更多的刺激措施。”

In an interview with Quartz, Malik discussed India’s GDP and inflation forecasts, problems faced by the banking sector and what more needs to be done to kickstart an economic revival in the country.

在接受Quartz的采访时,马利克讨论了印度的GDP和通货膨胀预测,银行业面临的问题,以及需要采取哪些措施来启动该国的经济复苏。

Edited excerpts:

以下是采访摘录:

RBI governor Shaktikanta Das has stated that India’s GDP would bounce back to 7.4% in financial year 2022. Is it realistic?

印度央行行长达斯表示,印度GDP增速将在2022财年反弹至7.4%。这现实吗?

While GDP growth will be in the range of 1.5-3% in financial year 2021, there is a clear possibility of a strong rebound next financial year. I would place it at 6.5%.

虽然2021财年的GDP增长率将在1.5-3%之间,但下个财年很有可能出现强劲反弹。我估计GDP增速将反弹至6.5%

Are there signs of a 2008-like recession globally and a severe slowdown in India?

是否有迹象表明此次衰退将类似于2008年的全球经济衰退,印度经济将严重放缓?

Recession is a word, which is loosely, and wrongly, used as a synonym for slowdown. Technically, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. While most countries are likely to go into recession, India and China are expected to record positive growth (this financial year).

Given the gravity of the crisis and its crippling impact, a cut in India’s GDP projection by global agencies does not cause much surprise. Micro, small & medium enterprises (MSMEs) and services segments are likely to be among the most affected amid a reduction in consumer spending. Also, borrowers of non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) would be adversely impacted. They typically have limited cash buffers, and any fall in earnings is likely to affect their ability to repay loans.

严格来讲,GDP连续两个季度呈负增长,即为“衰退”。尽管大多数国家可能陷入衰退,但印度和中国(本财年)预计将实现正增长。

考虑到危机的严重性及其严重影响,全球各大机构下调对印度GDP的预测并不令人感到意外。随着消费者支出的减少,微型、中小企业(MSMEs)和服务业可能会受到最严重的影响。此外,非银行金融公司(NBFCs)的借款人将受到不利影响。它们的现金缓冲通常有限,收入出现任何下降都可能影响它们偿还贷款的能力。

美国雅虎读者的评论:

外文:https://finance.yahoo.com

Cherry

EXACTLY WHY the US needs to move production & services back to the US.

这正是美国企业需要将生产转移回本土的原因。

 

Sorin

Consumption is low and may stay low for a while. How may China stay positive?

消费低迷,而且可能会在很长一段时间内保持低水平,中国如何保持正增长?

 

Eureka Peak

A huge % of the world’s consumers are unemployed with little or no buying power, yet the “world’s factory” escapes with no financial fallout?

世界各国有很多人失业,购买力很低,没有购买力,“世界工厂”不会陷入衰退?

 

John

The world economy is so global that no country will escape a recession. Even though China and India can produce things they need the rest of the world to buy them.

经济全球化程度如此之高,没有一个国家能够避免衰退。尽管中国和印度可以继续生产各种商品,也要有人买啊。

 

Daughter of American Revolution

China props up its Economy more Than we do

相比美国,中国更能支撑起自己的经济

 

CHRIS

Sounds like China propaganda

听起来像是给中国做宣传的啊

 

Calvin

It's a world economy. If the US has a recession, so will China and India.

经济全球化,如果美国陷入衰退,中国和印度也会陷入衰退的啊。

 

George

US stock market is going up too recently doesn't matter how many people lost their jobs and how many businesses closed thier doors.

不管有多少人失业,多少企业关门,美国股市最近仍在上涨啊。

 

R

Just stop buying Chinese products. Stop saying your going to stop. Just do it.

抵制中国货。不要嘴上说说,要付诸行动。

 

Jimbeaut

Seriously, unless you are a rich person in either of these countries, how much worse could this make things??

说真的,在这两个国家,除非你是富人,否则目前的处境不堪设想

 

SJA

No, they won't. They need buyers and consumption and that is where we have the biggest impact.

不,印度和中国也避免不了衰退。他们需要别国购买他们的产品,而这正是我们最能左右的。

 

Falco

Don't bet on it. You can't trust China, that's for sure.

这可说不准。不能相信中国,这是肯定的。

 

Mike

Gibberish.

胡说八道

 

Cahoon

Wrong. If everyone is in a recession then chinas exports will fade. Can’t sell if people have no money to buy

如果每个国家都陷入衰退,那么中国的出口将会下降。如果消费者没钱买,东西就卖不出去。

 

Mao

India’s dependence on external economic activity is much lower than other countries. Hence, global slowdown may have low impact on India, not sure about China though.

印度对外国的依赖远远低于其他国家。因此全球经济放缓可能对印度影响不大,但对中国的影响并不确定。

 

Sensualist

If Biden or DemocRats win, we will all be speaking Mandarin.

如果拜登的党赢得大选,到时候我们都要开始说普通话了。

 

John

Please, this is a joke! Who is buying Chinese goods? They are printing money in massive amounts right now and their debt load before all this happened was massive. Their currency is not the world's reserve currency and they depend on dollars to survive.

拜托,这是个玩笑吧!

谁还在买中国货?

大量印钞,债务大得很。他们的货币不是世界储备货币,依靠美元生存。

 

Rita

In fact India may gain by the end of the year as most countries have lost faith in China and may invest in India.

事实上,随着大多数国家对中国失去信心,可能荣华彩票下载在印度投资,印度可能在今年年底前获益。

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